Biden Administration Nominees Need to Tell Congress How They Will Handle Near-Term Climate Risk
By Kelly Wanser, Executive Director, SilverLining
The Biden administration has emphasized its intention to address climate change across federal agencies via transparent, science-based decision-making. This type of cross-sectoral effort is precisely what is required to tackle what is now a climate emergency. As Congress works through the vetting process of those nominated to fill positions at the agencies central to this effort, namely the Environmental Protection Agency, Department of State, Department of Energy, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, lawmakers must elevate in their dialogue with nominees the issue of how the Administration plans to handle near-term climate risk.
Climate extremes are having an impact now on vulnerable people and ecosystems and recognition of that reality is growing every day. We also must begin to face another important reality; reducing emissions, even all the way to zero, will not affect warming in the next 30–40 years. If we are going to protect people and sustain natural systems during this time, then we need to explore temporary ways of keeping the climate stable that can support, rather than conflict with, efforts to reduce greenhouse gasses.
As an organization focused on near-term climate risk, SilverLining believes there are important issues that Congress should raise with Administration nominees as part of this process, such as the need for a task force to assess and manage near-term climate risk; the role of federally funded research into potential near-term climate interventions; the national security implications of climate change; and, the specific impacts on vulnerable communities.
Specifically, we offer five key questions that Senators should ask these nominees to answer in order to ensure that the Administration places appropriate priority on addressing the near-term climate risks as part of their overarching strategy to combat climate change.
Question: Warming has now reached dangerous levels, with catastrophic extremes causing enormous economic damage and rising loss of life. Scientists also report that major natural systems are approaching “tipping points” that could accelerate climate change. Yet no amount of emissions reduction can affect warming in the next 30–40 years, leaving a critical near-term gap in safety. How will you consider and address this near-term climate risk, including potential ‘tipping points’?
Background: The climate is changing rapidly due to warming in the atmosphere, with increased impact on people and ecosystems around the world. Like the human body running a fever, some systems can adjust to increased heat, but, as temperatures rise, some will reach tipping points — sustaining damage that is severe and irreversible.
While emissions reductions are essential to preventing further warming, even the most aggressive reduction or removal efforts will likely not have a significant near-term impact on the climate, exposing natural systems and humans to an unacceptable level of near-term risk. Scientists predict it will take at least a decade to research and develop the knowledge we need to assess the feasibility of potential rapid climate response tools — like climate interventions — so it is critical we pursue it now.
Question: Will you support federally funded research into potential near-term climate interventions, including a comprehensive assessment within the next five years?
Background: The National Academy of Sciences has found one of the most promising ways to reduce warming within a few years is based on one of the ways nature can cool the Earth — increasing the reflection of sunlight from clouds and particles (aerosols) in the atmosphere (“solar climate intervention”). But we need much more research to determine whether and how such interventions could be undertaken safely and effectively.
U.S. federal funding for climate research hasn’t increased in decades, even as climate health has dramatically deteriorated. At about $2.6 billion annually, climate research is drastically underfunded relative to the magnitude of the problem and the value of better information. The need to understand our climate response options is urgent. We need a comprehensive assessment of potential near-term climate interventions within the timeframe of this administration.
Question: How will you work to ensure the United States remains at the forefront of research and approach climate information-sharing and accessibility of climate models, data sets, and computing between agencies both domestically and internationally?
Background: The United States has the capabilities and resources that make it both possible and imperative that our nation lead the global effort to understand and respond to our changing climate. As SilverLining has outlined in its recommendations to the Biden administration, U.S. leadership could propel the international community to move quickly toward progress
Coordination between international bodies on the potential implementation of climate interventions will require close collaboration and global alignment. The administration should call on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to hold an expert meeting on near-term abrupt change risks and rapid climate interventions, as well as issue a Special Report on the topic. The Biden administration should also support current and future assessment of solar climate intervention by the Montreal Protocol.
Question: How will your agency prioritize the effects of climate change on society’s most vulnerable, within and outside of the U.S.?
Background: Climate change has already caused substantial suffering in many parts of the U.S. and around the world. The gaps in our ability to predict near-term impacts and abrupt changes, as well as the gaps in our options to address them, pose imminent threats to the most vulnerable members of society. Families with lower incomes and communities of color often have no choice but to live in areas vulnerable to the worst impacts of climate change — increasingly frequent and alarmingly deadly hurricanes, heat waves, drought, flooding, disease, and food insecurity — all of which can and does lead to displacement or death.
Current climate models project warming based on emissions scenarios in 2050. If we do not find tools to reduce impacts of warming, remediate its harms, or ensure protection from the abrupt changes it causes before then, scientists predict climate impacts will lead to tens of millions of more deaths, a billion or more people displaced, and unspeakable suffering.
Climate change increasingly impacts all facets of human life, including public health, national defense, and social justice. SilverLining supports the new administration in its commitment to align federal agencies to understand and fight climate change. We urge leaders to recognize the threats near-term impacts of climate change pose to our safety and invest in researching a portfolio of tools to rapidly respond to warming.
Question: Do you agree that climate change is a threat to national security and must be assessed strategically by your agency as such? Would you support significantly expanding climate and weather observation and prediction capabilities in order to secure infrastructure, fortify operations, and support readiness, including increased collaboration with civilian agencies?
Background: Climate impacts pose substantial threats to global security by increasing instability in vulnerable countries, promoting conflict over scarce resources, and opening new theaters of operation, such as the Arctic. They also pose direct threats to national security in terms of military infrastructure and operational readiness. As climate impacts increase, nations including China, India, some developing countries, and some European nations are beginning to invest in forms of weather modification and solar climate intervention.
Meanwhile, the U.S. lacks sufficient information to inform policy decisions about whether to cooperate in these activities or work to constrain them. This information gap leaves the U.S. unable to assess and respond to climatic and geostrategic developments. Better information and improved scientific understanding will likely reduce tensions and support cooperative decision-making in these areas. We must research an available portfolio of measures that arrest or rapidly reduce warming if we are to ensure global and regional security and sustain national strategic infrastructure and assets.
SilverLining looks forward to working with policymakers to prioritize climate risk, investment in scientific research, and options to directly reduce warming in the near-term. We’ve outlined specific recommendations to drive forward international cooperation, national security, and domestic climate policy. With a new administration comes new opportunities to combat Earth’s warming and secure a safe climate for our future generations.
